未世民評論：其實我也認為美國聯儲的做法是在引暴另一個金融與經濟泡沫，誠如下文的作者所說直到美聯儲通過定量寬松政策與負利率政策炒作的全球性金融市場大泡沫徹底破裂，美國國債市場徹底崩潰，債券市場全面倒塌，今年六月彼爾德伯格會議上有一個摧毀美元的國際銀行家計劃，當時克林姆林宮里有人為總理與總統準備了關于這方面的報告，當時聽起來讓人感覺有點聳人聽聞，可是實際上如果你長期研究金融市場你就會發現這一計劃有很大的可能性，反正我當時仔細的研究了這一會議的計劃，同時還再次讀了關于彼爾德伯格俱樂部的大部分研究資料，我相信在某種程度上存在一個系統性的毀滅美元的計劃，這里有很多的證據，如宋鴻兵提出的斯泰爾，蒙代爾，LEAP--E2020研究機構等。同時市場上存在著巨大的美元作空與全球金融市場作多的研究機構。歷史也許是巧合，但我不相信會有如此多的巧合，當全球性的金融市場陷入瘋狂之時，沒有人會想到正是美元與美國國債和各式各樣的債券會出現出其不意的大危機，然后這種大危機會在一夜之間導致國際貨幣體系出現重大的混亂，而債券市場有可能會被毀滅，這是個歷史性的危機，也許這就是宋先生所說的更大的金融危機正在被各國的中央銀行向后推遲。
今天看了張庭賓先生的文章，我與先生們有相近的看法，我相信我們走在一個很大的房地產泡沫危機的路上，早在去年的一篇文章中我就有這種看法，我也認為顧虎先生所說的擊鼓傳花的結束時間已經不遠了，這種泡沫破裂對經濟有嚴重的影響，在那種情況下，我應當思考我們的未來結局究竟如何。
我一直堅持說，最近在美國聯邦儲備委員會將不... ...不將預示著在本周的政策會議結束寬松的貨幣環境。 I have been adamant recently in saying that the Federal Reserve would not … would NOT … signal an end to the easy money environment at this week's policy meeting. 這些家伙只是缺乏政治意志和傾向做正確的事情。 These guys simply lack the political willpower and the inclination to do what's right. 他們想保持酒流向資產膨脹的長期后果是該死的。 They want to keep the booze flowing to inflate assets, the long-term consequences be darned. ); 果然，周三，美聯儲重申，這不是在大約資產或商品價格上升，均擔心。 Sure enough, the Fed reiterated Wednesday that it's not worried at all about the surge in asset or commodity prices. 它說， It said,
“大量的資源松懈[是]可能繼續抑制成本壓力和長期通脹預期穩定，委員會希望通貨膨脹率將維持疲弱一段時間。” “Substantial resource slack [is] likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.”
不僅如此，美聯儲還表示，將維持低利率，直到母牛回家。 Not only that, the Fed also said it will keep rates low until the cows come home. 具體來說，它說，它... Specifically, it said that it …
“...仍期望經濟條件，包括對資源利用率低利率，溫和通脹趨勢，穩定通脹預期，有可能需要特別的聯邦基金利率水平低長時間。” ” … continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”
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| 聯邦公開市場委員會并不擔心通貨膨脹。 The FOMC isn't worried about inflation. |
唯一的變化，美聯儲沒有信號？ The only change the Fed did signal? 它會買急升至1.75億美元的所謂“代理”債務略低于2000億美元的原定目標。 That it'll buy up to $175 billion in so-called “agency” debt, slightly below its previous target of $200 billion. 但是，它仍然會購買按揭1250000000000美元證券。 But it's still going to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities.
而且這不買的房利美和房地美發行的債券，因為它少突然意識到這種愚蠢的“貨幣化”美國的債務... And it's not buying fewer bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because it suddenly realized the folly of “monetizing” US debt obligations …
...這是因為“有限的機構債券”購買。 … it's because of the “limited availability of agency debt” to buy. 換言之，美聯儲擔心它的過彎和扭曲了市場...它是！ In other words, the Fed is afraid it's cornering and distorting the market … which it is!
永不忘記：“積極”是在華盛頓的一個骯臟的詞 Never Forget: “Proactive” Is A Dirty Word in Washington
為什么我一直說你應該忘記空話您擔心緊縮政策的聽證會？ Why have I been saying you should forget the empty talk you're hearing about tighter policy? 因為行動是最重要的。 Because action is what counts. 它是非常清楚的，我認為， 美聯儲不會采取行動 ， 直到它迫使美元崩潰，債券市場崩潰，或兩者組合 。 And it is abundantly clear to me that the Fed won't take action until it's forced to by a dollar crash, a bond market collapse, or some combination of both.
這些活動是很重要的信號，市場已經失去了在美聯儲控制通貨膨脹的能力和信心，美國政府愿意維持美元的價值，因此需要政策回應。 Those events would be important signals that the market has lost confidence in the Fed's ability to control inflation and in the US government's willingness to preserve the value of the dollar, necessitating a policy response.
“積極”是非常簡單，在華盛頓骯臟的詞匯。 “Proactive” is quite simply a dirty word in Washington. 政客（這包括美聯儲成員，無論怎樣他們喜歡假裝他們不是政治動物）不喜歡到危機前搬遷 ... 僅僅時隔讓他們政治借口這樣做。 Politicians (and this includes Fed members, no matter how much they like to pretend they're not political creatures) don't like to move before a crisis … only after one gives them the political cover to do so.
事實上，歷史是清楚的：不是主動收緊世紀90年代末的貨幣政策，以平息在科技股的瘋狂投機，美聯儲忽視了泡沫，直到它燒毀了數以百萬計的投資者的投資組合。 Indeed, history is clear: Rather than proactively tighten monetary policy in the late-1990s to quell the insane speculation in tech stocks, the Fed ignored the bubble until it gutted the portfolios of millions of investors. 然后美聯儲忽視了2003-2006年房地產泡沫，直到它毀了房主百萬人的生命。 Then the Fed ignored the 2003-2006 housing bubble until it ruined the lives of millions of homeowners.
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| 美聯儲剛向市場 ， 讓快樂時光！ The Fed just told the markets to let the good times roll! |
現在，美聯儲正在做同樣的事情了 ，但在一個更加宏偉的規模。 Now, the Fed is doing the same thing again , but on an even grander scale. 這是陽光下的膨脹幾乎所有資產-垃圾債券，公司債券，黃金，商品，股票，你能想到的。 It's inflating virtually every asset under the sun — junk bonds, corporate bonds, gold, commodities, stocks, you name it. ，而不是積極采取措施，控制市場...才失控...他們只是說，本周的市場，讓快樂時光！ And rather than proactively taking steps to control the markets … before they get OUT of control … they just told the market this week to let the good times roll!
穩壓器，美國國會研究的其他方式 ， 而房利美，房地美，以及大型銀行開自己的懸崖！ Regulators, Congress looked the other way while Fannie, Freddie, and mega-banks drove themselves off a cliff!
這不只是美聯儲的決策者。 It's not just Fed policymakers. 這是銀行監管機構和國會的壓力！ It's the banking regulators and Congress, too!
看看房利美和Freddie Mac。 Look at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. 人們警告多年，它們將承擔很大的風險...他們過于分散和資本...住房暴跌掩埋。 People were warning for years that they were taking on too much risk … that they were too thinly capitalized … and that a housing crash would bury them.
不過，華盛頓使這兩個機構繼續自己的快樂方式，堆積如山的債務和風險相當龐大。 But Washington allowed the two agencies to go on their merry way, piling up huge amounts of debt and risk. 我們都知道發生了什么，然后：他們炸毀了，需要的數百億美元的納稅人資助的援助資金。 We all know what happened then: They blew up, requiring tens of billions of dollars in taxpayer-funded bailout money.
同上的銀行正在作出魯莽，高風險住房抵押貸款，抵押貸款和商業房地產貸款。 Ditto for the banks that were making reckless, high-risk home equity loans, mortgages, and commercial real estate loans. 許多觀察家，包括我們，都高喊著他們的屋頂，這將導致災難。 Many observers, including us, were shouting from the rooftops that this would end in disaster.
但是，而不是關閉使這些貸款的貸款人，或迫使他們削減了高風險貸款，所有的監管所做的問題，甜蜜蜜的“指導”的信件。 But rather than shut down the lenders making these loans, or FORCE them to cut back on their risky lending, all the regulators did was issue mealy-mouthed “guidance” letters. 該銀行所忽視，因為他們已經沒有牙齒。 The banks ignored them because they had no teeth. 而不是后不久，這些銀行開始下降像多米諾骨牌。 And not too long after, those banks began to fall like dominoes.
底線：我不喜歡美聯儲的資產膨脹的現行政策。 Bottom line: I don't LIKE the Fed's current policy of asset inflation. 我知道這將結束在流淚。 I know it's going to end in tears. 但是，直到這些事件我剛才（貨幣崩潰，債券市場崩潰等）出現，迫使政策的改變，導致了勢頭的轉變，我們唯一能做的個人投資者是跟著玩，努力使盡可能多錢越好。 But until those events I mentioned earlier (currency crash, bond crash, etc.) occur, forcing a change in policy and leading to a shift in momentum, the only thing we can do as individual investors is play along and try to make as much money as possible.
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