何新博友來(lái)信：美國(guó)大使館的電報(bào)所透露的對(duì)華轉(zhuǎn)基因食品戰(zhàn)略

　　以下是本博老何信箱昨日收到的一封讀者來(lái)信

　　主題:一份09年美國(guó)大使館的電報(bào)所隱含的對(duì)華食品戰(zhàn)略

　　日期:2012年12月1日格林尼治標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時(shí)間+0800下午8時(shí)23分41秒

　　收件人::[email protected]

　　老頑童:

　　一份09年美國(guó)大使館的電報(bào)中寫(xiě)道：While China has been rightly blamed for negligence in other instances regarding safety issues, the current application and safety assessment of biotechnology generally appears to have been done reasonably well with close attention paid to human, animal, and environmental impacts.

　　這意味著三年前美國(guó)的報(bào)告就已經(jīng)明確無(wú)誤承認(rèn)了這樣的事實(shí)，即：轉(zhuǎn)基因糧食會(huì)帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重的后果。為了誤導(dǎo)中國(guó)對(duì)此類健康惡化的反思，相應(yīng)的策略被這樣制定，即：制造食品其他方面的安全問(wèn)題與關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)。

　　而在國(guó)內(nèi)發(fā)生的問(wèn)題也不斷印證了這樣的策略，例如：三聚氰胺毒奶、面粉漂白劑添加劑、化學(xué)添加劑兌飲料、地溝油等等等等。

　　地溝油問(wèn)題屢禁不止，而此問(wèn)題成為公眾焦點(diǎn)之時(shí)恰恰是轉(zhuǎn)基因在中國(guó)布局之時(shí)。

　　最近又出現(xiàn)一個(gè)酒鬼酒添加塑化劑的事件。水果不易保鮮，添加防腐劑倒也情有可原，酒難道也存在防腐的問(wèn)題么？在酒里添加有致癌作用的塑化劑，如果不放在西方對(duì)華實(shí)施人口削減戰(zhàn)略的層面上看，實(shí)在是不可理解。

　　可見(jiàn)：美國(guó)為首的西方在國(guó)內(nèi)買辦們的配合下強(qiáng)行推廣轉(zhuǎn)基因主糧已有三年矣。

　　而在此三年中，國(guó)人的健康惡化空前到來(lái)：糖尿病發(fā)病率超10%，腎病發(fā)病率超10%且逐年上升。（有記者從第三軍醫(yī)大學(xué)某院腎內(nèi)科了解到，僅2011年該院腎病就診人數(shù)就有7.5萬(wàn)，血透5.1萬(wàn)，較往年增長(zhǎng)率為18%和25%，遠(yuǎn)超GDP的增長(zhǎng)率。而健康惡化不分窮富，在富人對(duì)腎臟活體器官的龐大需求下，器官非法采摘與販賣催生了新的犯罪。某17歲青年為了個(gè)什么Ipad而出賣自己的腎臟正是在這種健康全面惡化的大背景下所催生的人間悲劇。）

　　同時(shí)，猝死的青年人逐年增多，甚至出現(xiàn)大學(xué)新生軍訓(xùn)時(shí)被曬死的空前奇聞。

　　非但如此，種族的繁衍也開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)空前危機(jī)：精子合格率逐年下降，育齡婦女不育數(shù)量達(dá)到空前5000萬(wàn)。（2012年，南京，有記者從市婦幼保健院獲悉,參加孕檢的男性精子質(zhì)量合格率不足30%。）

　　而這一切均與轉(zhuǎn)基因作物長(zhǎng)時(shí)間喂食老鼠的實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果不吻而合。

　　為了混淆中國(guó)決策者們對(duì)轉(zhuǎn)基因的反思，三聚氰胺、面粉漂白劑、地溝油、塑化劑等等化工添加劑被秘密制造出來(lái)，并通過(guò)曝光吸引和轉(zhuǎn)移公眾視線。于是，作為主力的轉(zhuǎn)基因消滅中國(guó)人的策略就在五花八門(mén)的有害添加劑的喧囂掩護(hù)中被順利地實(shí)施了。

　　在國(guó)內(nèi)買辦的配合下，可以預(yù)見(jiàn)未來(lái)的中國(guó)：癌癥患者還會(huì)逐年上升。不孕不育還會(huì)逐年增多。中國(guó)兒童體質(zhì)還將繼續(xù)惡化。中國(guó)的猝死青年亦將逐年攀升。同時(shí)伴隨著富人對(duì)活體器官需求的不斷增多，中國(guó)的器官犯罪將媲美人口買賣，成為新的犯罪熱點(diǎn)。

　　當(dāng)量增加到一定程度時(shí)，伴隨著新老接替的更新?lián)Q代，體質(zhì)一代不如一代中國(guó)人將面臨毫不留情的種族滅絕。

　　老頑童，怎么辦？

　　【老頑童讀后回復(fù)：這也許是某種宿命。老頑童，很無(wú)奈。】

　　附文：

　　美國(guó)駐華大使電報(bào)原文全文

　　——————————————

　　中國(guó)悄然引領(lǐng)農(nóng)業(yè)生物技術(shù)革命

　　2009-12-07 09:54

　　FM AME MBA SSY BEI JING

　　SEN SI TIVE

　　E.O. 12958: N/A

　　BEI JING 00003263 001.3 OF 005

　　(U) This cable is Sensitive But Un classified. Please protect accordingly.

　　該電報(bào)敏感但不保密，請(qǐng)正確保護(hù)。

　　?1. (SBU) In early November 2009, China authorized the first commercialization of major biotech food crops. A government website confirmed their approval of phytase corn and Bt rice. Despite little fanfare, this will revolutionize China's agriculture and may be the global agricultural development of the decade. Successful utilization of plant biotechnology by millions of Chinese rice farmers will likely significantly defuse, if not end, debate about the safety of the technology in China and possibly the developing world. END SUMMARY.

　　2009年11月初，中國(guó)授權(quán)了第一個(gè)主要生技食用作物的商業(yè)化。政府網(wǎng)站確認(rèn)他們批準(zhǔn)了轉(zhuǎn)植酸酶玉米和Bt水稻。雖然動(dòng)靜很小，這將在十年間給中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)甚至可能是全球農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展帶來(lái)革命。成百萬(wàn)中國(guó)水稻農(nóng)對(duì)植物生物技術(shù)的成功應(yīng)用將可能在中國(guó)乃至可能是發(fā)展中世界，顯著消除，如果不是終結(jié)，關(guān)于此項(xiàng)技術(shù)安全性的爭(zhēng)論。

　　LITTLE FANFARE, MAJOR MOVE

　　?2. (SBU) On November 21, 2009, Beijing-based Origin Agritech announced that it is the first company to receive de-regulated status for genetically modified corn for planting in China. Confirmed by China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), Origin's phytase corn product received the final biosafety certificate that permits its domestic sale and marketing. China also granted a biosafety certificate to Huazhong University and Dr. Zhang Qifa for Bt rice. Reuters first announced the Bt rice news on November 27 and it was picked up by the Chinese media on November 30. On December 3, MOA posted formal confirmation of both authorizations on its website. The cultivation of corn will be limited to Shandong province and rice will be limited to Hubei province. Moreover, provincial seed registration procedures will likely prevent the first direct sales to farmers until at least the 2012 planting season.

　　2009年11月21日，北京Origin農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)公司宣布其成為中國(guó)第一家獲得解除管制狀態(tài)的基因改造玉米用于種植的公司。由中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部(MOA)確認(rèn)，Origin的轉(zhuǎn)植酸酶玉米獲得了最終生物安全認(rèn)證，允許其國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)銷售。中國(guó)同時(shí)授予華中大學(xué)張啟發(fā)博士Bt水稻的生物安全認(rèn)證。路透社在11月27日首先報(bào)道了Bt水稻的消息，中國(guó)媒體11月30日?qǐng)?bào)道。12月3日，中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部在其網(wǎng)站對(duì)兩項(xiàng)認(rèn)證予以正式確認(rèn)。玉米種植將被限定于山東省，水稻種植將被限定在湖北省。另外，行政的種子注冊(cè)程序?qū)⒖赡苤辽俚?012年種植季前防止第一批種子直接銷售給農(nóng)民。

　　?3. (SBU) In 2008, seven million farmers grew biotech crops in China, about half of the global total. Chinese farmers grew biotech crops on 3.8 million hectares of land, making China the sixth largest producer of biotech crops by land area. Prior to this announcement, the list of genetically modified plants approved for planting in China included: cotton, tomato, sweet pepper, petunia, poplar, and papaya. Cotton and poplar trees are the only biotech plants grown on a large-scale in China. There is also limited production of biotech papaya. China also currently permits 28 varieties of biotech corn, cotton, canola, sugar beet, and soybean to be imported for processing.

　　在2008年， 中國(guó)有幾百萬(wàn)農(nóng)民種植生技作物，大約占全球的一半。中國(guó)農(nóng)民在三百八十萬(wàn)公頃土地上種植生技作物，以面積計(jì)使得中國(guó)成為第六大生技作物生產(chǎn)國(guó)。在這項(xiàng)宣告 前，中國(guó)已批準(zhǔn)種植的基因改造植物包括：棉花、西紅柿、甜椒、矮牽牛花、楊樹(shù)和番木瓜。僅有棉花和楊樹(shù)這兩種生技植物在中國(guó)大面積種植。還有有限產(chǎn)量的生 技番木瓜。中國(guó)最近也允許28個(gè)品種的生技作物進(jìn)口加工，它們是玉米、棉花、加拿大油菜、甜菜和大豆。

　　CHINA ALREADY USES BIOTECH, WHAT'S THE BIG DEAL?

　　中國(guó)已經(jīng)使用生物技術(shù)，有什么大不了?

　　?4. (SBU) China's record on biotechnology is already impressive, but the agricultural world has been waiting expectantly for China to decide how it would approach the application of plant biotechnology in food crops. Why is the deregulation of biotech corn and rice is a ground-breaking event in Chinese agriculture and possible the history of this technology? The answer is that China's application of plant biotechnology was narrow and omitted several key aspects of a country that intends to be a leader in the technology. There are three main reasons why current application has heretofore been considered "narrow": 1) avoiding non-food crops; 2) using only proven technology; and 3) avoiding decisions related to environmental safety.

　　中國(guó)在生物技術(shù)上的記錄已讓人印象深刻，但是農(nóng)業(yè)世界已在期待中國(guó)決定怎樣將植物生物技術(shù)應(yīng)用于食用作物。為什么撤銷對(duì)生技玉米和水稻的管制是中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)一 個(gè)突破性事件并可能成為該技術(shù)的歷史?答案是中國(guó)對(duì)植物生物技術(shù)的應(yīng)用是狹窄的，并且缺少了想要成為該技術(shù)領(lǐng)跑者的幾個(gè)關(guān)鍵方面。為什么現(xiàn)有應(yīng)用在此以前 被認(rèn)為“狹窄”有三條主要原因：1)避免非食用作物;2)僅使用已驗(yàn)證過(guò)的技術(shù);3)避免有關(guān)環(huán)境安全的決策。

　　?5. (SBU) First, China's commercial use of the technology is almost exclusively limited to non-food plants. Focusing on non-food plants minimizes the need to analyze the impact on human health, thus reducing risk to regulators and the personal consequences of making an incorrect decision. In addition, food security concerns do not come into play if the crop fails to produce as advertised or various factors lead to yields that are less than conventional varieties. Biotech papaya is an exception, but a very minor crop that accounts for far less than 1 percent of total biotech planted area. In fact, this rationale also applies to phytase corn because it will not be used directly in human food.

　　第一，中國(guó)對(duì)該技術(shù)的商業(yè)應(yīng)用幾乎被嚴(yán)格限制在非食用作物上。致力于非食用作物上最大程度降低了分析對(duì)人體健康影響的需要，這樣減小了對(duì)管理者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和個(gè) 人做出錯(cuò)誤決定的后果。另外，如果作物未能產(chǎn)生如宣傳那樣，或多種因素導(dǎo)致低于傳統(tǒng)品種的產(chǎn)量，也不會(huì)引起食品安全擔(dān)憂。生技番木瓜是一個(gè)例外，但僅有非 常少的種植，遠(yuǎn)低于生物技術(shù)總種植面積的1%。事實(shí)上，這一理由也用于轉(zhuǎn)植酸酶玉米，因?yàn)樗粫?huì)被直接用于人的食物。

　　?6. (SBU) Second, the majority of the technology in use is proven technology, first tested and used in the United States. For example, the majority of the biotech planted area consists of a version of Roundup Ready cotton created in the United States and misappropriated for use in China. China's biotech papaya was also originally developed in the United States. Using proven technology also limits the risk taken by Chinese regulators, which makes these early deregulated events safe choices for hesitant bureaucrats.

　　第二，正在使用的主要技術(shù)是已被驗(yàn)證的技術(shù)，首先在美國(guó)得以測(cè)試和使用。例如，主要的生技種植面積由一種美國(guó)創(chuàng)造的抗農(nóng)達(dá)棉花組成，在中國(guó)是不正當(dāng)使用。 中國(guó)生技番木瓜也源自美國(guó)開(kāi)發(fā)。使用已被驗(yàn)證的技術(shù)也降低了中國(guó)管理者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這些技術(shù)使這些早期撤銷管制的項(xiàng)目成為猶豫的官員們安全的選擇。

　　?7. (SBU) Third, the current biotech agricultural crops are not native to China or have relatively unimportant wild relatives in China. This is a very important consideration. The stakes are far higher for regulators when dealing with plants that have wild, weedy cousins or where wild relatives are still important sources of genetic information for seed developers. Pollen drift is of particular importance in the debate about biotech rice in China and the rest of Asia. For this reason, the Chinese government poured extensive time and money into environmental risk analysis.

　　第三，現(xiàn)有生物技術(shù)農(nóng)作物并非原產(chǎn)于中國(guó)或在中國(guó)有相對(duì)不重要的野生近緣種。這是非常重要的考慮。對(duì)管理者來(lái)說(shuō)當(dāng)處理的植物有野生的，雜草般的遠(yuǎn)親或野生 近緣種仍然是育種時(shí)遺傳信息的重要來(lái)源時(shí)，賭注變得更高。花粉漂移是中國(guó)及其它亞洲國(guó)家對(duì)生技水稻爭(zhēng)論特別重要的一點(diǎn)。由此，中國(guó)政府傾注了大量時(shí)間和資 金于環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。

　　?8. (SBU) Though Chinese leaders have long stated that biotechnology can be safely used after proper evaluation, no large-scale commercially viable food crops were granted a safety certificate for the three political and scientific reasons mentioned above. Even though China has advanced research in all major crops and in dozens of traits, the Ministry of Agriculture has tabled previous biosafety certificate applications and prohibited certain advanced trials; this was notably the case for vitamin A enriched "golden rice." Many experts blamed the delay on risk-averse bureaucrats who wanted a zero-risk situation in terms of biosafety and press/public reaction in order to protect their careers.

　　雖然中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人早已宣稱生物技術(shù)在適當(dāng)評(píng)估后可以安全使用，卻由于以上三條政策及科學(xué)原因，并沒(méi)有大規(guī)模切實(shí)可商業(yè)化的食用作物被授予安全認(rèn)證。即使中國(guó)已在所有主要作物及許多特性上擁有先進(jìn)研究，農(nóng)業(yè)部已擱置了早先的生物安全認(rèn)證應(yīng)用并禁止某些高級(jí)實(shí)驗(yàn);這在富含維生素A的“金大米”一案中顯而易見(jiàn)。許多專家批評(píng)不愿承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的官員，他們希望就生物安全和媒體/公眾反應(yīng)是零風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀態(tài)以保護(hù)他們的職業(yè)。

　　LOGJAM BROKEN

　　打破阻礙

　　?9. (SBU) Many Chinese senior researchers had been discouraged from further research and investment in plant biotechnology by the barriers faced by developers of food crops and of China-origin technologies. Cotton is one of the most agrochemical-intensive crops and Chinese researchers for years have shown the significant reduction in chemical use and improved worker health associated with biotech cotton. Despite cotton's obvious success, there was a feeling of frustration in the research community by 2008.

　　由于食用作物和中國(guó)自主技術(shù)開(kāi)發(fā)商面臨許多障礙，許多中國(guó)資深研究者已經(jīng)對(duì)進(jìn)一步研究和對(duì)植物生物技術(shù)投入上失去信心。棉花是農(nóng)用化學(xué)品最集中使用的作物 之一，中國(guó)研究者已在多年中顯示顯著降低了與生技棉花相關(guān)的化學(xué)品的使用并促進(jìn)了工人的健康。盡管棉花明顯的成功，研究團(tuán)隊(duì)在2008年仍感到被挫敗。

　　?10. (SBU) However, in early October 2009, local contacts reported to AgAttache that there was a private meeting between Premier Wen Jiabao and developers of high tech products, including agricultural products, to discuss these issues. He reportedly told the group that while China was a leading investor in biotechnology, it was failing to get new events to market. Wen went on to emphasize that state funded technology should not only be developed, but used as well. This message was seen as the "final word" on the subject and a strong signal to reluctant bureaucrats that they could and should move forward and begin approving biotech events without fear of career suicide if problems arose or there was negative public reaction.

　　然而，2009年十月上旬，當(dāng)?shù)芈?lián)絡(luò)人向AgAttache(agricultural attaché，農(nóng)業(yè)使館)報(bào)告，溫家寶總理與高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品，包括農(nóng)產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)商舉行了私下會(huì)談以討論這些項(xiàng)目。他據(jù)報(bào)道說(shuō)雖然中國(guó)是生物技術(shù)的首要投資方，卻未能向市場(chǎng)投入新產(chǎn)品。溫繼續(xù)強(qiáng)調(diào)國(guó)家資助的技術(shù)不僅應(yīng)開(kāi)發(fā)，并且要使用。這一信息被看作是該項(xiàng)目的“最終決定”并給予不情愿的官員們一個(gè)強(qiáng)烈的信號(hào)，使他們可以且應(yīng)該推進(jìn)和贊成生物技術(shù)項(xiàng)目，如果出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題或負(fù)面的公眾反應(yīng)也不用擔(dān)心職業(yè)生涯終結(jié)。

　　?11. (SBU) Chinese researchers in all agricultural fields have been encouraged by Wen Jiabao's support and the new commercializations. Not only does it mean that existing research can now accelerate, it also means that the Ministry of Agriculture will no longer be reluctant to distribute the billions of dollars that have been pledged to agricultural research. China will now likely forge ahead with many of the first generation products that provide benefits to producers and also second generation traits that are more consumer, plant stress and environment focused. During bilateral meetings, China has repeatedly emphasized that their top priority is drought-tolerant traits in corn and other food crops.

　　中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域的研究者被官方的支持和新的商品化(項(xiàng)目)所鼓舞。不僅是因?yàn)樗馕吨F(xiàn)有研究可以加速，也表明農(nóng)業(yè)部不再不情愿地分撥已許諾于農(nóng)業(yè)研 究的數(shù)十億美元。中國(guó)從此將可能加速推進(jìn)許多給生產(chǎn)商帶來(lái)利益的第一代產(chǎn)品，以及更多關(guān)注消費(fèi)者、植物脅迫及環(huán)境的第二代產(chǎn)品。在雙邊會(huì)議中，中國(guó)已反復(fù) 強(qiáng)調(diào)在玉米及其它食用作物中，它們首要考慮的特性是抗旱。

　　?12. (SBU) Background regarding China's biotechnology research and regulatory process can be found in FAS China's Annual Biotechnology Report. The most recent update was published on August 3, 2009, and is labeled as GAIN Report CH9060. It can be found at www.fas.usda.gov.

　　關(guān)于中國(guó)生物技術(shù)研究和管理程序的背景資料可以在FAS(美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部外國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)服務(wù)處)中國(guó)年度生物技術(shù)報(bào)告中找到。最近的更新發(fā)布于2009年8月3日，標(biāo)簽為谷物報(bào)告GAIN Report CH9060，可在www.fas.usda.gov找到。

　　PRODUCERS EXPECTED TO BENEFIT FROM CHANGES

　　生產(chǎn)者設(shè)想從改變中獲利

　　?13. (SBU) Bt technology has a long history of use in the United States, including Bt potatoes, Bt corn, Bt sweet corn, Bt sugar beet, and Bt alfalfa. In the case of Bt crops, the gene of interest produces a protein that kills harmful plant pests and allows growers can use Bt traits as an alternative to spraying insecticides. The -Bt delta endotoxin was selected for many crops because it is highly effective at controlling Lepidoptera larvae at the stage when they cause the most damage to the plant. The protein is very selective, generally not harming insects in other orders (such as beetles, flies, bees and wasps).

　　Bt技術(shù)在美國(guó)有很長(zhǎng)的使用歷史，包括Bt馬鈴薯、Bt玉米、Bt甜玉米、Bt甜菜及Bt苜蓿。在Bt玉米中，所需的基因產(chǎn)生一種蛋白能夠殺死植物害蟲(chóng)，且種植者可以選擇使用Bt特性作為一種可噴灑的殺蟲(chóng)劑。Bt德?tīng)査?nèi)毒素被選用于多種作物是因?yàn)槠鋵?duì)鱗翅目幼蟲(chóng)在其對(duì)植物傷害最大時(shí)的高效控制。這種蛋白選擇性強(qiáng)，一般不會(huì)傷害其它類型的昆蟲(chóng)(如甲蟲(chóng)、蠅類、蜜蜂及黃蜂)。

　　?14. (SBU) Phytase is currently used as an additive in animal feed to breakdown phytic acid in corn, which holds 60 percent of the phosphorus in corn. Phytase increases phosphorus absorption in animals by 60 percent. Phosphorus is an essential element for the growth and development of all animals, and plays key roles in skeletal structure and in vital metabolic pathways. Phytase, as an additive for animal feed, is mandatory in Europe, Southeast Asia, South Korea, Japan, and other regions for environmental purposes.

　　植酸酶現(xiàn)在被用于動(dòng)物飼料添加劑以降解玉米中的植酸，它大約占玉米磷含量的60%。植酸酶使動(dòng)物對(duì)磷的吸收增加60%。磷是動(dòng)物生長(zhǎng)發(fā)育的重要元素之一，在骨骼結(jié)構(gòu)和重要代謝途徑中扮演關(guān)鍵角色。在歐洲、東南亞、南韓、日本及其它地區(qū)，為環(huán)境目的在動(dòng)物飼料中添加植酸酶是必須的。

　　?15. (SBU) Phytase transgenic corn, developed by and licensed by Origin from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science (CAAS) after seven years of study, can allow feed producers to eliminate the need to phytase and corn separately. It will also eliminate the need to mix the two ingredients together, thus saving time, machinery, and labor for feed producers.

　　植酸酶轉(zhuǎn)基因玉米由來(lái)自中國(guó)科學(xué)院農(nóng)科院(CAAS)的Origin經(jīng)過(guò)七年研究后開(kāi)發(fā)和許可，可使畜牧業(yè)者不再分別需要植酸酶和玉米，也不再需要將這兩種配料混合，這樣可為畜牧業(yè)者節(jié)省時(shí)間、機(jī)械及人工。

　　?16. (SBU) Origin's GMO phytase-producing corn is expected to reduce the need to add inorganic phosphate supplements to feed as the animals will directly absorb more phosphate. The replacement effect reduces feed cost. Additionally, inorganic phosphates may be contaminated with fluorine and heavy metal residues created in the manufacturing process. These fluorine and heavy metal residues in the feedstuff are toxic to animals and dangerous to humans.

　　Origin的產(chǎn)植酸酶玉米是設(shè)想降低在飼料中無(wú)機(jī)磷酸添加劑的需要，因?yàn)閯?dòng)物將直接吸收更多的磷酸鹽。這一替代效果將減少飼料成本。另外，無(wú)機(jī)磷酸鹽可以被工業(yè)生產(chǎn)中產(chǎn)生的氟和重金屬殘?jiān)廴尽＿@些飼料中的氟和重金屬殘留對(duì)動(dòng)物是有毒的并對(duì)人有危害。

　　?17. (SBU) As described above, these traits are not directly related to yield. The benefits of these traits largely mean lower input costs for farmers (Bt rice) or the feed manufacturing chain (phytase corn), which ultimately benefit the farmer through lower input costs or a premium sales price. There will be some yield advantage to Bt rice because of reduced pest damage, but the primary yield attributes of the seed remain its conventionally-bred genetics.

　　如上所述，這些特性并不直接與產(chǎn)量相關(guān)。這些特性的好處主要意味著降低(Bt水稻)農(nóng)民或飼料生產(chǎn)鏈(植酸酶玉米)的投入，這將最終通過(guò)降低投入成本或額外賣價(jià)使農(nóng)民受益。Bt水稻將因?yàn)榻档拖x(chóng)害有一些產(chǎn)量上的好處，但其基本產(chǎn)量仍歸因于其傳統(tǒng)育種的遺傳基礎(chǔ)。

　　NOT SO FAST - PRACTICAL IMPACT LIMITED FOR NOW

　　不會(huì)太快——現(xiàn)在實(shí)際的影響有限

　　?18. (SBU) While granting the biosafety certificate is a milestone in terms of public policy, it will likely be several years before these seeds are in the hands of farmers. First, seed companies will need to register each biotech seed variety with provincial authorities and prove stability and effectiveness. [Note. This requirement applies to conventional varieties as well. End Note.] Testing can take two years or more. Following provincial approval, the company will then need to replicate enough seed for commercial sale. As a result, Chinese farmers may not see these seeds on sale until the 2012 planting season or beyond. Though farmers and livestock producers may want to see the technology in fields sooner, this is a normal timeframe for the development and marketing of new seeds in China, conventional or biotech. Another puzzling limitation is that the crops were each authorized for planting in only one province, which will severely constrict their commercial viability if the scope of use is not later broadened. Sources suggest that this limitation was the trade-off for being the pioneering commercialization.

　　雖然從國(guó)家政策來(lái)說(shuō)頒布生物安全證書(shū)是一個(gè)里程碑，卻仍可能需要幾年這些種子才能到農(nóng)民手中。第一，種子公司將需要獲得每一種不同生物技術(shù)種子的各省授權(quán) 并證明穩(wěn)定性和有效性。【注：傳統(tǒng)作物也要求申請(qǐng)。】測(cè)試需要兩年或更多。在省級(jí)授權(quán)后，公司將需要為商業(yè)銷售培育足夠的種子。所以，中國(guó)農(nóng)民可能直到2012年 耕種季節(jié)或更久都不能看到這些種子。雖然農(nóng)民和畜牧業(yè)者可能想要盡早在田間看到這些技術(shù)，但這是新種子在中國(guó)培育和上市通常的時(shí)間窗，包括傳統(tǒng)的或生物技 術(shù)改造的。另一個(gè)難解的限制是每一種作物僅在一省被授權(quán)種植，如果其后不擴(kuò)大其使用范圍，這將嚴(yán)重限制它們的商業(yè)活力。資料提供者建議這一限制是作為開(kāi)創(chuàng) 性商業(yè)的平衡。

　　?19. (SBU) The commercialization of these crops in China could pose challenges for U.S. regulators, especially if China decides not to seek import approval. U.S. regulators have no/limited knowledge of these events and, despite Chinese assurances, the events could get into trade channels, thus raising the possibility that a biotech event unapproved for use in the Unites States is being imported.

　　這些作物的商品化可能對(duì)美國(guó)管理者帶來(lái)挑戰(zhàn)，尤其當(dāng)中國(guó)不尋求進(jìn)口準(zhǔn)入時(shí)。對(duì)這些項(xiàng)目，盡管中國(guó)保證，但美國(guó)管理者沒(méi)有或僅有有限的知識(shí)，這些項(xiàng)目可能進(jìn)入貿(mào)易渠道，這樣將增高美國(guó)已進(jìn)口未經(jīng)批準(zhǔn)的生物技術(shù)項(xiàng)目的可能。

　　?20. (SBU) Chinese (whole grain) rice exports are about $24 million and corn exports are very minimal. However, rice and corn by-products are pervasive in small quantities as food ingredients in processed foods, which make up the bulk of Chinese exports of food products to the United States. This makes exports of corn or rice containing products much larger but also hard to precisely determine. Though trade is small, how will China deal with exports? Will the Chinese companies seek regulatory approval for their products in export markets like the United States? MOA has stated to AgAttache that foreign registration is the company/developer's responsibility, though they will provide some informational resources in a way similar to what FAS does for U.S. companies.

　　中國(guó)(整粒)大米出口大約兩千四百萬(wàn)美元，玉米出口非常少。然而，大米和玉米作為配料或加工食品的副產(chǎn)品以小數(shù)量無(wú)處不在，這形成了中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)食品出口的 大部分。這使得含有玉米或大米的出口產(chǎn)品數(shù)量大且難于精確統(tǒng)計(jì)。雖然貿(mào)易量小，中國(guó)如何對(duì)待出口?中國(guó)公司是否也如美國(guó)一樣對(duì)其在出口市場(chǎng)的產(chǎn)品尋求管理 上的授權(quán)?中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部已對(duì)AgAttache宣布外國(guó)(企業(yè))注冊(cè)是公司/開(kāi)發(fā)商的責(zé)任，而他們將像FAS(美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部外國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)服務(wù)處)對(duì)美國(guó)公司一樣提供一些信息資源。

　　?21. (SBU) China has already had problems in biosafety containment with experimental Bt rice, which is somewhat similar to the U.S. experience with biotech rice. According to the Chinese Government, there was "a case of illegal use" of Bt 63 rice in Hubei province in 2005 that resulted in the limited but unapproved planting of the rice in 2005 and 2006. Though China claims to have eliminated Bt rice from cultivation, it was detected in export shipments to Europe and New Zealand in 2007 and 2008. Thus, questions about China's next steps relating to export markets in terms of deregulation and potential certification of food products have significance for U.S. regulators and consumers. Discussions on this subject were initiated by U.S. biotechnology regulators during the 2009 U.S./China Biotechnology Working Group meeting.

　　中國(guó)在實(shí)驗(yàn)Bt水稻時(shí)已產(chǎn)生生物安全控制的問(wèn)題，這一點(diǎn)與美國(guó)生物技術(shù)水稻的經(jīng)驗(yàn)有些相似。根據(jù)中國(guó)政府(公布)，2005年在湖北省有Bt63水稻的“一例非法使用”導(dǎo)致2005和2006年有限的但未經(jīng)批準(zhǔn)的水稻種植。雖然中國(guó)宣稱已取消Bt水稻種植，但在2007和2008年出口歐洲和新西蘭的大米仍被檢測(cè)到。由此，中國(guó)下一步有關(guān)出口市場(chǎng)就撤銷管制及可能的食品認(rèn)證的問(wèn)題對(duì)美國(guó)管理者和消費(fèi)者有巨大影響。美國(guó)生物技術(shù)管理者開(kāi)始在2009年美中生物技術(shù)工作組會(huì)議期間討論這一主題。

　　PRESS NOT INVITED SO FAR

　　迄今為止媒體未被邀請(qǐng)

　　?22. (SBU) Surprisingly, the news about phytase corn was not even initially released in China and Bt rice not mentioned at all. The corn news was released by Origin for benefit of its US shareholders and Reuters announced the Bt rice event. The Origin CEO told AgAttache that MOA recommended that he not release the news, though he finally persuaded them to the valuable nature of the news for his investors. MOA is very conservative and risk averse when it comes to biotechnology policy and controversy and the Chinese have very close reign on negative comments about biotechnology in agriculture. [Note. MOA publically ignored the EU complaints about Bt rice contamination of export shipments and, with the exception of a subdued Greenpeace, the Chinese press did not even run the story. End Note.]

　　令人驚訝的是，(轉(zhuǎn))植酸酶玉米的消息甚至并未在一開(kāi)始就在中國(guó)出現(xiàn)，而B(niǎo)t大米則根本未被提及。玉米的消息是為了美國(guó)股東的利益由Origin發(fā)布，而路透社宣布了Bt大米的消息。Origin的CEO告訴AgAttache，中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部(MOA)建議他不要公布這個(gè)消息，雖然他最終說(shuō)服他們這條消息對(duì)他的投資者的價(jià)值。中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部在生物技術(shù)政策和爭(zhēng)議上是非常保守的和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)反感的，并且中國(guó)人對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)中生物技術(shù)的負(fù)面評(píng)價(jià)更接近主導(dǎo)地位。【注：中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部公開(kāi)忽略歐盟對(duì)出口的Bt大米污染的抱怨，然而，除了不太顯著的綠色和平組織，中國(guó)媒體甚至沒(méi)有跟進(jìn)此事。】

　　?23. (SBU) However, given that rice is such a staple part of most Chinese citizens' diets, a public campaign to promote Bt rice seems inevitable either now or when the rice hits the consumer market. Given the high profile of certain rice researchers/academicians and the developer Zhang Qifa, China is likely to roll out a high-visibility campaign to laud the achievements of its own researchers and smiling peasants whose health will improve due to using less pesticides. The first indications of a tentative press rollout are a series of small articles published in the People's Daily appearing on December 1 and 3.

　　然而，考慮到大米是大多數(shù)中國(guó)人的主食，現(xiàn)在或當(dāng)Bt大米進(jìn)入消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)時(shí)，促進(jìn)Bt大米的公共游說(shuō)可能不可避免。考慮到某些大米研究者/學(xué)術(shù)人員及開(kāi)發(fā)者張啟發(fā)的鮮明姿態(tài)，中國(guó)可能鋪展開(kāi)一項(xiàng)高調(diào)的游說(shuō)活動(dòng)，贊揚(yáng)其自主研究者的功績(jī)，以及由于減少了農(nóng)藥使用而促進(jìn)健康的微笑的農(nóng)民。媒體首次試探性展示的第一個(gè)跡象是在人民日?qǐng)?bào)十二月1號(hào)和3號(hào)發(fā)表的一系列小文章。

　　COMMENT - GLOBAL SIGNIFICANCE

　　評(píng)價(jià)——全球意義

　　?24. (SBU) This move by China may prove to be the concluding chapter in the initial debate about plant biotechnology. Though around for decades, various actors have promoted doubts about safe use of the technology, especially in developing countries. Though almost thirty countries plant 140 million hectares each year, the big developing countries have not moved into biotech food crops in a significant way with the exception of large food exporters. As China moves to start using plant biotechnology, largely for domestic purposes, the size and interconnectedness of the country will expand the sheer numbers of farmers growing biotech crops, consumers eating the derived food, and products developed outside of the multinational technology companies. China's sheer size encourages other developing countries to follow its lead and marginalizes those blindly opposed to the technology itself. If the indications are correct and India also approves biotech food crops, the world will be a much more receptive place for the safe application of the technology than just a few years ago.

　　中國(guó)的這一舉動(dòng)可能成為有關(guān)植物生物技術(shù)爭(zhēng)論起始階段的一個(gè)結(jié)束章節(jié)。雖然幾十年來(lái)，多方參與者，尤其在發(fā)展中國(guó)家已發(fā)起對(duì)安全使用這項(xiàng)技術(shù)的質(zhì)疑。雖然接近三十個(gè)國(guó)家每年種植140百萬(wàn)公頃(1.4億 公頃)，但大的發(fā)展中國(guó)家并未顯著地將生物技術(shù)用于食用作物，而僅是用于食品出口。當(dāng)中國(guó)開(kāi)始使用植物生物技術(shù)，主要用于國(guó)內(nèi)用途，(則由于)國(guó)家的龐大 及內(nèi)部聯(lián)系，充足的農(nóng)民種植生物技術(shù)作物，消費(fèi)者食用產(chǎn)出的食物，以及外部跨國(guó)生物技術(shù)公司開(kāi)發(fā)的產(chǎn)品將被擴(kuò)大。中國(guó)的龐大鼓勵(lì)其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家在其帶領(lǐng)下 邊緣化那些針對(duì)該技術(shù)的盲目反對(duì)。如果這些跡象是確切的，且印度也批準(zhǔn)生物技術(shù)用于食用作物，世界對(duì)這項(xiàng)技術(shù)安全應(yīng)用的接受程度將比幾年前大大增加。

　　?25. (SBU) However, forging ahead with the promise of biotechnology is predicated on China's safe use of it. While China has been rightly blamed for negligence in other instances regarding safety issues, the current application and safety assessment of biotechnology generally appears to have been done reasonably well with close attention paid to human, animal, and environmental impacts. China's increasing investment in this area and its potential impact on the U.S. consumer and environment suggest that cooperation with China grows more important as it becomes a global leader in this technology.

　　然而，推進(jìn)生物技術(shù)應(yīng)用前景基于在中國(guó)的安全使用。相對(duì)于中國(guó)由于在其它安全問(wèn)題事例的忽略而被正當(dāng)?shù)刂肛?zé)，現(xiàn)有生物技術(shù)的應(yīng)用和安全評(píng)估密切關(guān)注對(duì)人、動(dòng)物及環(huán)境的影響，似乎大體上已被相當(dāng)合理地完成。中國(guó)增加在這個(gè)方面的投入及其對(duì)美國(guó)消費(fèi)者和環(huán)境的潛在影響提示，當(dāng)中國(guó)在這項(xiàng)技術(shù)上全球領(lǐng)先時(shí)與中國(guó)合作逐漸變得更加重要。

　　HUNTSMAN獵人

　　以上為美國(guó)駐華大使電報(bào)原文全文

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