TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's first annual trade deficit in more than 30 years calls into question how much longer the country can rely on exports to help finance a huge public debt without having to turn to fickle foreign investors.
日本在超過30年后首次年貿(mào)易額出現(xiàn)赤字（令人）提出了質(zhì)疑：這個國家還有多長時間可以靠出口來幫助一個巨大的公共債務(wù)融資，而非不得不靠變幻無常的外國投資者。
The aftermath of the March earthquake raised fuel import costs while slowing global growth and the yen's strength hit exports, data released on Wednesday showed, swinging the 2011 trade balance into deficit.
三月地震的余波使得燃料進(jìn)口成本上升，同時全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩和日元的強(qiáng)勢也打擊出口，周三公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示了其2011年的貿(mào)易余額在動蕩中出現(xiàn)赤字。
Few analysts expect Japan to immediately run a deficit in the current account, which includes trade and returns on the country's huge portfolio of investments abroad. A steady inflow of profits and capital gains from overseas still outweighs the trade deficit.
很少有分析師會預(yù)期日本將立即在帳面上出現(xiàn)赤字，這其中包含了貿(mào)易和國家巨大的海外投資組合回報(bào)。一個穩(wěn)定的利潤流入和來自海外的資本收益仍然超過了貿(mào)易赤字。
But the trade figures underscore a broader trend of Japan's declining global competitive edge and a rapidly ageing population, compounding the immediate problem of increased reliance on fuel imports due to the loss of nuclear power.
但貿(mào)易數(shù)字突出了日本全球競爭力的下降和人口迅速老齡化（的影響）更加廣泛的一個趨勢，并參雜了眼前由于損失了核電使得對進(jìn)口燃料的依賴增加的問題。
Only four of the country's 54 nuclear power reactors are running due to public safety fears following the March disaster.
由于三月的災(zāi)難引起對公眾安全的擔(dān)心，全國54個核電廠只有4個正在運(yùn)行。
 "What it means is that the time when Japan runs out of savings -- 'Sayonara net creditor country' -- that point is coming closer," said Jesper Koll, head of equities research at JPMorgan in Japan.
“它（貿(mào)易赤字）意味著日本耗盡儲蓄的時間 - ”再見凈債權(quán)國“ - 這個時間點(diǎn)越來越接近。” 摩根大通日本股票研究主管加斯帕科爾表示。
"It means Japan becomes dependent on global savings to fund its deficit and either the currency weakens or interest rates rise."
“這（日本儲蓄耗盡）意味著日本將依賴于全球儲蓄以支付其赤字，使得貨幣疲軟或利率上升。”
That prospect could give added impetus to Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's push to double Japan's 5 percent sales tax in two stages by October 2015 to fund the bulging social security costs of a fast-ageing society.
這種前景可能進(jìn)一步推動總理大臣野田佳彥推行分兩步在2015年10月時提高日本5%的消費(fèi)稅2倍（注：中國只有15類商品有消費(fèi)稅，每個類別的稅率不同，一般已經(jīng)直接打入價(jià)格里面了）以支付因快速老齡化社會而膨脹的社會保障費(fèi)用。             
The biggest opposition party, although agreeing with the need for a higher levy, is threatening to block legislation in parliament's upper house in hopes of forcing a general election.
最大的反對黨（注：自民黨）雖然同意有提高稅收的需要，但威脅要在上議院阻止法案（通過），希望能迫使（民主黨進(jìn)行）換屆選舉。
Japan logged a trade deficit of 2.49 trillion yen ($32 billion) for 2011, Ministry of Finance data showed, the first annual deficit since 1980, after the economy was hit by the shock of rising oil prices.
日本錄得2011年的貿(mào)易赤字是2.49萬億日元（約32億美元），財(cái)務(wù)部的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在經(jīng)濟(jì)受到石油價(jià)格上漲的沖擊后，這是自1980年以來的首次出現(xiàn)年度赤字。
Were Japan to run a current account deficit, it would spell trouble because it would mean the country cannot finance its huge public debt -- already twice the size of its $5 trillion economy -- without overseas funds.
如果日本在賬面上出現(xiàn)赤字，它會帶來麻煩，因?yàn)檫@意味著該國無法支付其龐大的公共債務(wù) - 已經(jīng)兩倍于其5萬億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模 - 不含海外資金。             
Japanese investors currently hold about 95 percent of Japan's government bonds, which lends some stability to an otherwise unsustainable debt burden.
日本投資者目前持有約95％的日本國債，這給予以其他方式難以承受的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)一定的穩(wěn)定性。
Domestic buyers are less likely to dump debt at the first whiff of economic trouble, unlike foreign investors, as Europe's debt crisis has shown.
其國內(nèi)買家在首波經(jīng)濟(jì)麻煩的時候不太可能轉(zhuǎn)儲債務(wù)，不像外國的投資者，就如歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)所展示的那樣。
The trade data helped send the yen to a one-month low against the dollar and the euro on Wednesday.
貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)推動周三日元兌美元和歐元達(dá)到一個月的低點(diǎn)。
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Graphic on 2011 trade data 2011年貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)圖表 http://link.reuters.com/mev26s

Dec trade balance 月貿(mào)易余額 http://link.reuters.com/vyq65s

Exports by destination 地區(qū)出口 產(chǎn)業(yè)空心化，人口老齡化
Total exports shrank 2.7 percent last year while imports surged 12.0 percent, reflecting reduced earnings from goods and services and higher spending on crude and fuel oil. Annual imports of liquefied natural gas hit a record high.
（日本）出口總額去年下跌2.7％，而進(jìn)口增長了12.0％，反映了商品與服務(wù)的收益減少和更高的原油和燃油消費(fèi)。年進(jìn)口液化天然氣量創(chuàng)下了歷史新高。             
In a sign of the continuing pain from slowing global growth, exports fell 8.0 percent in December from a year earlier, roughly matching a median market forecast for a 7.9 percent drop, due partly to weak shipments of electronics parts.
作為因全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩持續(xù)痛苦的信號，出口12月比去年同期下降了8.0％，大致符合市場預(yù)估的下降7.9％，部分原因是由于電子零件的出貨量疲弱。
Imports rose 8.1 percent in December from a year earlier, in line with a 8.0 percent annual gain expected, bringing the trade balance to a deficit of 205.1 billion yen, against 139.7 billion yen expected. It marked the third straight month of deficits.
12月進(jìn)口較去年同期增長8.1％，和8.0％的年出口增長基本持平，使得貿(mào)易余額以205.1億日元支出對139.7億日元收入。這標(biāo)志著連續(xù)第三個月的赤字。
Japan managed to sustain annual trade surpluses through the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s and the post-Lehman Brothers global recession that started in late 2008, which makes the 2011 dip into deficit all the more dramatic.
日本經(jīng)歷過20世紀(jì)90年代后期的亞洲金融危機(jī)和2008年年底開始的雷曼兄弟導(dǎo)致的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退后仍維持持續(xù)的年度貿(mào)易盈余，這使得其在2011年跌入赤字更具戲劇性。
A generation ago, Japan was the world's export juggernaut, churning out a stream of innovative products from the likes of Sony and Toyota.
一個世代以前，日本是當(dāng)時世界上的出口主宰，從如索尼和豐田等公司生產(chǎn)一系列創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品。
Much like China today, Japan's bulging trade surplus became a source of friction with the United States and other advanced economies, who pressed Tokyo to allow the yen to rise more rapidly in order to reduce the imbalance.
就像今天的中國，日本膨脹的貿(mào)易順差成為與美國和其他發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的摩擦源頭，他們施壓令東京允許日元上升更迅速，以減少失衡。
A 1985 agreement between Japan, the United States and Europe's big economies -- known as the Plaza Accord after the New York hotel where it was signed -- pushed the yen higher against the U.S. dollar.
一個1985年日本，美國和歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)大國之間的協(xié)定- 在紐約酒店簽署后被稱為“廣場協(xié)議” - 推動日元兌美元升值。
Many economists argue that sowed the seeds of Japan's current debt woes. After the Plaza Accord, Japan's economy weakened and its central bank slashed interest rates, which contributed to a credit boom that eventually spawned a financial crisis and led to two decades of economic stagnation.
許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為這（廣場協(xié)議）為日本目前的債務(wù)危機(jī)埋下了禍根。廣場協(xié)議后，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)減弱，央行降息，這加劇了信貸熱潮并最終催生了金融危機(jī)以及導(dǎo)致了二十年的經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯。
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Tuesday he did not expect trade deficits to become a pattern, and did not foresee the country's current account balance tipping into the red in the near future.
日本銀行行長長白川方明周二表示，他不認(rèn)為貿(mào)易赤字會成為一個模式，而且沒有預(yù)測認(rèn)為該國賬面在不久的將來會變成紅色。
But Japan's days of logging huge trade surpluses may be over as it relies more on fuel imports and manufacturers move production offshore to cope with rising costs and a strong yen, a trend that may weaken the Japanese currency longer term.
但日本記錄巨額貿(mào)易盈余的日子可能會結(jié)束，因?yàn)樗鼘M(jìn)口燃料更加依賴，并且制造商把生產(chǎn)移往境外，以應(yīng)付成本上升和強(qiáng)勢日元，這一趨勢可能會較長期的削弱日本貨幣。
A fast-ageing population also means a growing number of elderly Japanese will be running down their savings.
快速老齡化的人口也意味著越來越多的日本老人將動用自己的積蓄。
Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura said the government wants to closely watch the trend of exports and imports.
內(nèi)閣官房長官藤村修表示，政府想要密切關(guān)注出口和進(jìn)口的趨勢。
"There are worries that the yen's strength is driving Japanese industry to go abroad," said Fujimura. "We have to create new industries ... implement comprehensive steps to boost growth. It is important to secure employment within the nation."
“我們擔(dān)心日元的強(qiáng)勢正驅(qū)使日本產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移到國外去，”藤村說。“我們必須要創(chuàng)造新的產(chǎn)業(yè)......實(shí)施全面的步驟以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。這對于確保國內(nèi)的就業(yè)是重要的。”
($1=77.71 yen)（本文編輯時1美元兌77.71日元）
(Additional writing by Leika Kihara; Editing by Linda Sieg and Emily Kaiser)