Recommendations / Alert on financial sector

LEAP/E2020 advises to get out of the financial sector in general and to do it as soon as possible when it comes to the US (or operating in the US) financial sector.

As described above in the present GEAB, the converging consequences of the subprime mortgage crisis are about to hit hard and durably on all credit and banking institutions involved (that is to say nearly every large financial institution in the US, as well as every big international bank, the US Fed’s « primary dealers » in particular). The largest institutions are likely to be affected via a significant degradation of their balance sheets (i.e. their profits); meanwhile medium-size institutions directly run the risk to file for bankruptcy. Moreover, as it is already the case for a number of subprime mortgage lenders such as New Century or for some private banks such as Goldman Sachs or Lehman Brothers, LEAP/E2020 estimates very likely that a number of these institutions end up into various judicial proceedings. Apart from the judicial consequences for large banks involved in bankruptcies, it is likely that subprime lenders get suspected of mismanagement by federal or state authorities and involve the final responsibility of those banks which mixed up everything (shareholders, costumers, advisers, retailers…).

In any event and for the months to come, this sector is rated to « high risk » by LEAP/E2020.

高盛遭美司法部刑事調(diào)查 股價(jià)跌至9個(gè)月來最低值，股票評(píng)級(jí)遭降級(jí) 日期：2010-05-02 作者：吳錚 來源：新華社

美國(guó)一些司法界人士4月30日說，在美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)高盛集團(tuán)提起民事訴訟前，美國(guó)司法部已對(duì)高盛展開刑事調(diào)查。          高盛股價(jià)4月30日跌至9個(gè)月以來最低值，股票評(píng)級(jí)遭降級(jí)。          美國(guó)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》4月29日援引消息人士的話報(bào)道，位于曼哈頓的紐約南區(qū)聯(lián)邦檢察官辦公室剛開始對(duì)高盛集團(tuán)展開刑事偵查，以了解高盛是否卷入涉及住房抵押貸款交易的欺詐活動(dòng)。          一些不愿公開姓名的司法界人士4月30日告訴美國(guó)《華盛頓郵報(bào)》，司法部已經(jīng)調(diào)查高盛數(shù)周。          《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》報(bào)道，司法部對(duì)高盛展開刑事調(diào)查緣于證交會(huì)把高盛涉嫌欺詐的調(diào)查報(bào)告移請(qǐng)司法部刑事偵查。          美國(guó)證交會(huì)4月16日民事起訴高盛在次級(jí)抵押貸款業(yè)務(wù)金融衍生品交易中欺詐。          這些司法界人士說，紐約南區(qū)聯(lián)邦檢察官辦公室以積極調(diào)查金融欺詐案著稱，它調(diào)查高盛并非基于證交會(huì)提示。司法部調(diào)查與證交會(huì)調(diào)查并行，而且比后者調(diào)查范圍更廣。          他們說，司法部尚未決定是否對(duì)高盛提出刑事指控。          高盛遭刑事調(diào)查消息傳出后一天，高盛股票價(jià)格下跌9.4%，達(dá)9個(gè)月以來最低值。          紐約證券交易所4月30日高盛股票收盤價(jià)下跌15.04美元，至145.2美元。          自4月15日即證交會(huì)宣布起訴高盛前一天至今，高盛股價(jià)降幅超過21%，市值蒸發(fā)206億美元。          美國(guó)格林伍德投資咨詢公司投資組合經(jīng)理沃爾特·托德說：“證交會(huì)宣布指控高盛欺詐時(shí)，（高盛股價(jià)跳水的）門已打開。顯然，刑事調(diào)查消息進(jìn)一步推開這扇門。”          數(shù)家評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)的分析師4月30日調(diào)低高盛股票評(píng)級(jí)。          美國(guó)銀行——美林分析師蓋伊·莫斯科夫斯基把高盛股票評(píng)級(jí)從“買入”調(diào)低至“中性”，將高盛目標(biāo)股價(jià)從220美元下調(diào)至160美元。          標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾公司股票分析師馬修·阿爾布雷克特把高盛股票推薦級(jí)別從“持有”調(diào)低至“賣出”，將目標(biāo)股價(jià)從180美元下調(diào)至140美元。          經(jīng)濟(jì)研究機(jī)構(gòu)白金漢研究集團(tuán)分析師們也調(diào)低高盛股票評(píng)級(jí)至“中性”。          就高盛遭刑事調(diào)查一事，莫斯科夫斯基說：“即使最終（高盛）未受刑事指控，也足以引人擔(dān)憂。”